Poll Watch Daily

(After this wrap-up of polls was published, new surveys by the Washington Post/ABC News and the Wall Street Journal/NBC News were released showing the same trends as the earlier polls: Americans want to see a debt limit deal made, and Republicans are at odds with the rest of the overall public on how to get there. “Republicans are in a very, very ticklish and difficult position,” said Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who conducted the Journal/NBC poll along with Republican pollster Bill McInturff).

There have been a series of polls since June, many having to do with the story at center-stage in Washington — namely, the difficult negotiations over raising the debt limit and what kind of deficit reduction measures need to accompany any deal to do it, (although one plan put on by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would get around the standoff by allowing President Obama to raise the limit on his own authority).

One thread that runs through the various polls is that they contain a lot of red flags for Republicans now that they wield a share of the power after capturing the House in last year’s elections.

Among findings in the recent polls:

• Seven out of 10 Americans say congressional Republicans are putting their own political interests first in the way they are handling the debt limit issue. Sixty-five percent say that of congressional Democrats but a lesser 49 percent say it of Obama. Forty-seven percent say Obama is putting the country’s interests first. (USA Today/Gallup, July 15-17)

• Obama gets the best marks when it comes to how confident the public is in him to do the right thing on the debt issue when compared to key congressional leaders of both parties. The numbers are somewhat skewed because Obama is more recognizable than the lawmakers, so there are fewer “don’t know” answers when asked about him. Forty-eight percent have a fair or great deal of confidence in Obama while 49 percent do not. Fifty percent don’t have much or any confidence in House Speaker John Boehner while 33 percent do, with 16 percent undecided. The numbers are about the same for McConnell. Forty-eight percent have little or no confidence in House Majority Leader Eric Cantor to do the right thing, while 26 percent have a fair or great deal
amount of confidence in him. But in his case, 25 percent answered “don’t know.” (Pew Research/Washington Post, July 14-17)

• A CBS News poll (July 15-17) found far more Americans disapprove of congressional Republicans handling of the debt ceiling negotiations than they do for congressional Democrats or Obama. Seventy-one percent disapprove of the Republicans, 58 percent disapprove of the Democrats and 48 percent disapprove of Obama. Forty-three percent approve of Obama’s approach.

• Republicans are seen as caring more about Wall Street, financial institutions and big businesses by large margins while President Obama is seeing caring more than Republicans about average families, the middle class and small businesses. (Washington Post/ABC News, July 14-17)

• A plurality of Americans would blame congressional Republicans if talks on a debt deal fail. Forty-two percent would blame Republican lawmakers, 33 percent would blame the Obama administration, 13 percent would point the finger at both. Eleven percent answered “neither” or “don’t know.” (Pew Research Center/Washington Post, June 16-19).

• Polls tend to show that Republicans differ with the general public about whether a failure to raise the debt limit, forcing the federal government to default on its obligations, would have serious consequences. A Pew Research Center poll conducted July 15-17 found the overall public split on the question with 40 percent saying it was essential to raise the limit by the Aug. 2 deadline and 39 percent believing that the deadline could pass without resulting in major problems (21 percent were undecided). Fifty-three percent of Republicans and 65 percent of Republicans who agree with the tea party movement believed the deadline could pass without a crisis. A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 15-17 found that while a majority of Republicans prefer to see a compromise on the debt limit issue rather than holding out for the plan they favor, the number who feel that way is less than that of the overall public and significantly less than it is for Democrats and independents. Sixty-six percent of all Americans favor compromise, a view shared by 72 percent of independents and 69 percent of Democrats. Fifty-seven percent of Republicans share that view.

• A number of polls have suggested that the public favors a deficit reduction deal based on a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. Republicans, particularly the conservative freshman class and those agreeing with the tea party movement, have been adamant against agreement on anything smacking of tax increases — a position that has been the major sticking point in all the proposed deals so far. The CBS News poll conducted July 15-17 said “two thirds of Americans back the Obama administration position that a deal to increase the debt ceiling should include both spending cuts and tax increases, while just 28 percent back the Republican position of only spending cuts.” A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 5-11 found 67 percent in favor of a plan that included tax hikes for the wealthy and corporations. A Gallup poll conducted July 7-10 was not as conclusive: 32 percent favored a plan to reduce the deficit that did so “equally with spending cuts and tax increases.” Thirty percent wanted to tackle the deficit “mostly” with spending cuts and 20 percent “only” with spending cuts. Eleven percent preferred cutting the deficit mostly or only with tax increases.

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