Poll Watch Daily

President Obama finds himself in a close race when matched up against either Mitt Romney or Rick Perry, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Sept. 22-Oct. 4. In the GOP nomination contest, Romney leads Perry and Herman Cain, but is in virtually a dead heat with them among Republican voters who say they are paying close attention to the race.

Obama and Romney are tied at 48 percent among registered voters with 5 percent undecided, while Obama leads Perry 50 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 percent.

Those who support Romney and Perry describe their choices mostly as a vote against Obama rather than a vote for their candidate. Looking at the 48 percent for Romney, 33 percent say their choice is a vote against Obama and 15 percent say it is for Romney. In Perry’s case, among the 46 percent who say they will vote for him, 31 percent consider it primarily a vote against Obama while 12 percent say it is an endorsement of Perry.

For Obama, the numbers are reversed with most describing their choice as support for him rather than a vote against the Republican.

Pew says, “It is not unusual in the early stages of a presidential reelection campaign for the focus to be on the incumbent. In February 2004, most of George W. Bush’s supporters (39 percent of all voters) said they considered their vote as a vote for Bush, while most supporters of John Kerry (30 percent of all voters) said they viewed their vote as a vote against Bush.”

Romney is running somewhat more strongly against Obama than Perry because he does better among independents. They support Romney over Obama by 54 percent to 41 percent, with 4 percent undecided, but they favor Perry only by 48 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

In the race among Republicans, Romney is again in the lead as he is in other recent polls, with 22 percent of Republican voters supporting him. Perry has dropped to second place with 17 percent, and Herman Cain, who has surged to the top tier, is at 13 percent. Ron Paul is the only other candidate in double-digits with 12 percent. The margin of error is 5.5 points.

While Romney may be back on top, it is not an impressive show of strength. Pew found that among Republican voters who say that they have given “a lot of thought” to the race, there is “virtually a dead heat” between Romney at 23 percent, Cain at 20 percent and Perry at 19 percent.

Pew characterized the results as “Cain Surges, Perry Falls, Romney Stalls.” It said that in voter interviews conducted Sept. 22-25, Perry led Cain by 23 percent to 8 percent, but during the Oct. 1-4 period, Perry dropped 8 points and Cain rose 10 points.

Cain leads the field among tea party movement adherents with 23 percent compared to Perry at 18 percent and Romney at 17 percent.

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