Connie Mack’s Decision to Run Imperils Democrat’s Grip on Florida Senate Seat
The decision by three-term Florida Republican Rep. Connie Mack to jump into the race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson presents another headache for Democrats who go into next year’s election with a 53 to 47 seat majority to protect. A new Quinnipiac University poll says the son of former Sen. Connie Mack III and great-grandson of Hall of Fame baseball manager Connie Mack, is running just about evenly with Nelson.
Connie Mack. (House office photo)
Mack, with his well-known name, is far ahead of any other Republican seeking the nomination. Thirty-two percent of Republican voters support him with all the others in single digits.
In a general election contest, Nelson gets 42 percent to Mack’s 40 percent, with 16 percent undecided. Independents favor Nelson by 42 percent to 34 percent with 21 percent undecided. There is a noticeable gender gap with men favoring Mack by 47 percent to 38 percent and women preferring Nelson by 45 percent to 34 percent.
Nelson was first elected in 2000 when he ran for the seat being vacated by Mack’s father, and beat former Rep. Bill McCollum by 52 percent to 47 percent. He scored a much easier victory in his race for re-election in 2006 when his GOP opponent was Katherine Harris, who became nationally known for supervising the hotly contested 2000 presidential election recount in 2000 when she was Florida’s secretary of state. She was considered to have run a disastrous campaign against Nelson and he won by 60 percent to 38 percent.
The Democrats have 23 seats up for election next year if you count the two independents who caucus with them. The Republicans only have to defend eight seats. RealClearPolitics considers eight seats to be toss-ups next year, with Florida one of them.
“The entrance of Congressman Connie Mack into the Senate race changes what had been shaping up as an easy reelection for Sen. Bill Nelson into a tough fight that the incumbent could lose,” said Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown. “The fact that Mack is essentially tied with Nelson, who has been a statewide political figure for two decades, should set off warning bells at Democratic headquarters.”
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