Poll Watch Daily

All the polls on the Florida GOP primary race are now producing pretty much the same results, namely that Mitt Romney has built a lead over Newt Gingrich that will be difficult if not impossible for the former House Speaker to overcome by Tuesday.

A Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll conducted Jan. 24-26 has Romney leading Gingrich 42 percent to 31 percent, with 14 percent for Rick Santorum, 6 percent for Ron Paul and 7 percent undecided or preferring other options. The margin of error is 4.5 points.

The Herald said that about 500,000 early ballots has been cast by Republicans and the poll’s results indicate that efforts by Romney’s superior campaign organization, with the resources to reach out to early balloters, had paid off, with 47 percent supporting Romney to 35 percent for Gingrich.

Latino voters make up 11.1% of eligible Republicans, and they are backing Romney over Gingrich by 52 percent to 28 percent.

The Herald said, “Romney’s lead looks insurmountable. It cuts across geographic, ethnic and gender lines.”

The Tampa Bay Times said the same: “The poll offers little good news for Gingrich in Florida. Barring a last-minute surprise, Romney is heading toward a comfortable Florida win that will re-establish him as the heavy favorite to win the nomination.”

Romney’s attempts at the debates and through television ads to portray Gingrich as a Washington insider who benefited from his work for Freddie Mac appeared to pay off, with 52 percent having a negative view of Gingrich’s role with the giant government-backed mortgage company while only 28 percent regarded it positively.

By contrast, as other polls have shown, Gingrich’s efforts to paint Romney as a looter of businesses during his years at the buyout firm of Bain Capital did not get traction. About three-quarters of Republicans had a positive view of Romney’s experience.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 28 had Romney ahead of Gingrich by 40 percent to 32 percent, with 15 percent for Santorum and 9 percent for Paul. The rest was undecided. The margin of error is 5 points. A fifth of voters said they could yet change their minds.

Asked about his “collapse” in the polls on ABC News’ “This Week,” Gingrich said, “I think that they haven’t quite collapsed.  And the fact is, when you combine the Santorum vote and the Gingrich vote, we clearly are — the conservative combined would clearly beat Romney.”

“I think he’s run a relentlessly negative campaign,” Gingrich said. “Negative ads have an impact.  We have not been as effective in telling the truth as he has been in running ads, some of which have had to be pulled because they were so inaccurate. But the fact is, this race is going to go on.  The conservatives clearly are rejecting Romney.  He is nowhere near getting a majority.  And the fact is, once you get beyond Florida, these are all proportional representation states, and he’s not going to be anywhere near a majority by April.”

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