Archive for the ‘Entitlement Programs’ Category
Generations Divide Over Proposals on Entitlements
One of the findings that got overshadowed in a Pew Research Center report released last week about the generational divide on politics and major national issues was the differences between age groups when it came to entitlement programs.
The generations are mostly in synch with each other when it comes to maintaining Social Security and Medicare benefits, with majorities of Millennials, GenXers, Baby Boomers and over-65 silent generation members making that a priority over the need to take steps to reduce the budget deficit, according to the survey conducted Sept. 22-Oct. 4.
(Millennials are 18-to-30, GenXers are 31 to 46, and Baby Boomers are 47 to 65).
Millennials are the least dug in on the importance of maintaining benefits over cutting the deficit, with 53 percent wanting benefits to stay the same and 43 percent favoring steps to cut the deficit. The numbers predictably rise with each older age group. More than six-in-ten Boomers and Silents want to keep benefits as they are.
Where the generations divide are on two proposals that have been made at various times: allowing younger workers to put Social Security taxes into private accounts, and raising the retirement age for Social Security and gradually raising the eligibility age for Medicare.
Warning Signs for Obama Along the Generational Divide
One of the best windows into the forces that have driven presidential elections in recent years has been the generational differences in how voters of various age groups see the candidates as well as their differing demographics and views of the political, economic and social issues facing the nation.
A new Pew Research Center study conducted in two waves during September and October finds a big generation gap between the oldest and youngest Americans, and has some disconcerting news for President Obama as he heads into the 2012 elections.
Matched against Mitt Romney, Obama finds himself in a tie with the Republican at 48 percent. Looked at by age groups, Obama leads Romney among Millennial, a key component of his 2008 victory, by 61 percent to 37 percent but Romney commands a 54 percent to 41 percent lead among the over-65 Silent generation.
Obama also has lost ground among GenXers and Baby Boomers. GenXers supported him by 52 percent to 46 percent in 2008 and now Obama finds himself statistically tied with Romney among them, with Romney leading 48 percent to 47 percent. Obama was favored by Boomers by a bare 50 percent to 49 percent four years ago, but they have now shifted to Romney by a 51 percent to 45 percent margin.
(Members of the Millennial group fall between the ages of 18 and 30; GenXers are 31 to 46; Baby Boomers are 47 to 65; and Silents are 66 and older).
Perry’s ‘Ponzi’ Scheme Line About Social Security Doesn’t Faze Republicans, But May Dog Him If He’s the Nominee
Mitt Romney, who was knocked out of the GOP presidential frontrunner position by Rick Perry, clearly believes he’s found a point of attack against the Texas governor by seizing on his past statements and writings about Social Security, which Perry has likened to a “Ponzi” scheme.
But as far as Republicans go, a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 13-14 doesn’t find Perry’s rhetoric about Social Security to be much of an issue, at least until the eventual nominee is chosen and the general election campaign starts.
Nineteen percent 19% said Perry’s positions make it more likely that they would support him, and the same number said they would be less likely to back him. Twenty-four percent said it makes no difference and 36 percent responded that they didn’t know enough to say.
Americans Want Lawmakers on Bipartisan Deficit ‘Supercommittee’ to Be Willing to Compromise
A key element of the recent agreement to raise the debt ceiling is creation of a bipartisan congressional “supercommittee” whose job is to come up with proposals by next November to reduce the deficit by $1.5 trillion over 10 years. Amid predictions that the panel could face the same partisan wrangling that characterized the debt ceiling negotiations, the public has the same message for the committee that it did for Congress in general: it wants to see the members be willing to compromise
By a 60 percent to 35 percent margin, Americans want lawmakers on the supercommittee to agree to a compromise plan even if they personally disagree with it rather than holding out for the plan they want event if it prevents agreement, according to a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 4-7. Five percent were undecided.
That sentiment cuts across party lines, although to different degrees. Fifty-five percent of Republicans, 57 percent of independents and 67 percent of Democrats favor compromise.
Both Parties Seen Unfavorably, But Numbers for GOP Policies Are More Negative
Prompted by Nate Silver’s Post on FiveThirtyEight.com (Unfavorable Ratings for Both Major Parties Near Record Highs), we went back to take a second look at a CNN poll conducted July 18-20 in which, Silver noted, that the number of Americans who viewed the Republican Party unfavorably (55 percent) tied for their second highest unfavorable score since CNN began asking the question in 1992, and that Democrats, seen unfavorably by 49 percent, did not do much better.
Both parties were struggling Sunday to reach a debt ceiling and deficit reduction agreement before Asian markets in the evening (U.S. time) after several days of acrimony in which President Obama said Republican refusal to consider anything that smelled of a tax increase would put the burden for deficit reduction on vital domestic programs, while House Speaker John Boehner charged that Obama had “moved the goalposts” by the revenue increase figure the president put on the table.
While the weeks of ideological and partisan bickering have no doubt taken their toll on both parties, one question in the poll suggests that the Republicans have more to worry about than the Democrats.
Americans Believe Entitlement Programs Need Fixing, But Don’t Want Benefits Cut
Americans as a whole believe entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid have big problems that need fixing, but they want to see this done without reducing benefits, according to a new Pew Research Center study. While Democrats present a solid front in putting the priority on maintaining benefits over cutting the deficit, Republicans have divisions in their ranks based on class differences.
Pew’s findings come at the same time as the New York Times is reporting that President Obama wants to make a far-reaching deal to reduce the deficit that would make “substantial spending cuts, including in such social programs as Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security — programs that had been off the table.”
The big three entitlement programs are securely entrenched when it comes to public opinion. Nearly 9 out of 10 Americans believe Social Security and Medicare have been good for the country, and nearly 8 out of 10 say the same about Medicaid.
But the survey, conducted June 16-19, did find serious concerns about the performance of the programs and potential problems in their financing. A majority said Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid were doing an “only fair” or “poor” job in serving recipients. Seventy-seven percent regarded Social Security’s finances as only fair or poor, 74 percent said the same about Medicare and 72 percent about Medicaid.
Just how much appetite Americans have for big changes to address these issues is another matter. A plurality (41 percent) said Social Security “works pretty well,” 34 percent said it needed major changes but only 18 percent believed it needed to be completely rebuilt, with 7 percent undecided. Thirty-eight percent thought medicare worked pretty well compared to 33 percent who saw the need for major changes and 21 percent who said it needed rebuilding, with 8 percent undecided. Thirty-nine percent said Medicaid worked pretty well, 37 percent said it needed major changes, 17 percent said it needed rebuilding and 8 percent were undecided.
Opposition to the Ryan Medicare Proposal: Looking At the Dynamics that Drive It
While two-thirds of Americans believe that the Medicare program is either in financial crisis or has major problems, a large majority still oppose making reductions in the program’s spending or cuts that were more than minor, according to a Kaiser Health Tracking Poll conducted June 9-14.
Credit: Kaiser Family Foundation
Twenty-nine percent consider the program to be in crisis and another 38 percent say it has major problems but is not at the crisis point. Twenty-one percent say the program’s problems are minor and 7 percent don’t think it has problems at all, with 5 percent undecided. Thirty-four percent believe the trust fund will go bankrupt and no longer be able to pay medical bills for beneficiaries, while 37 percent say the fund will have a shortfall but still be able to pay for most but not all of the hospital costs of beneficiaries. Eighteen percent consider the program financially sound and 11 percent are undecided.
But presented with a range of reasons for making reductions to the program, none convince more than 32 percent to support major spending reductions. Preventing Medicare from going bankrupt generates the highest level of support for cutbacks. Only 18 percent would support reductions because it would help reduce the federal deficit. (Aside from other polls consistently showing strong opposition to the Medicare overhaul proposed by House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan, an Associated Press/GfK poll conducted in early May found that a majority of Americans believing the budget could be balanced without cutting Medicare, which amounted to 12 percent of federal spending in 2010).
Most Americans Say They’d Be Worse off Under Ryan’s Medicare Plan
If there was any doubt that Americans don’t like the plan to overhaul Medicare proposed by House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan, yet another poll has weighed in with results showing a strong majority who have negative views of it.
Paul Ryan. (House photo)
A Bloomberg conducted June 17-20 found that 57 percent of those surveyed saying they would be worse off under Ryan’s proposal to switch Medicare’s current fee-for-service model to one in which seniors are allotted a specified amount of money to shop for private insurance, with the government then paying those insurers directly. Thirty-four percent said they would not be worse off. Nine percent were undecided. Fifty-eight percent of independents believed they would be worse off. (Story; Poll data)
Public antipathy towards the plan has been reflected in just about every poll taken since its details became public in early April and has caused consternation in Republican ranks as the 2012 election approaches. When Bloomberg asked about those elections, a plurality of those surveyed (49 percent) were more worried that Republicans might win both houses of Congress and the White House and implement proposals like the Medicare one while a lesser 40 percent were more concerned that Democrats would hold the White House and at least one chamber of Congress and continue their spending policies.
A CBS News poll conducted earlier this month found that 58 percent wanted to keep Medicare as-is. A CNN/Opinion Research survey at the end of May showed 58 percent opposed the plan. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted in early May said 54 percent did not believe it was necessary to cut Medicare as one of the steps needed to balance the budget.
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Americans Agree Medicare Needs Fixes, But Oppose a Ryan-like Overhaul
A majority of Americans believe that Medicare – whose costs are expected to soar even higher as Baby Boomers retire — needs fundamental changes, but when it comes to the kind of overhaul proposed by House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan, 58 percent want to keep the system as it is, according to a CBS News poll conducted June 3-7. (Story; Poll Data).
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that Medicare’s main trust fund will run dry by 2020. In the 2010 fiscal year, Medicare accounted for 12 percent of federal spending.
Fifty-three percent of those surveyed believed that the program needs fundamental changes and another 13 percent said it has to be rebuilt. Twenty-seven percent said only minor changes are necessary, 2 percent said no changes are necessary and 5 percent were undecided.
Strongest Opposition to Ryan Medicare Plan Comes From Older Americans
A point that House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan has been careful to stress about his proposed overhaul of Medicare is that it would not affect anyone over 55 — perhaps out of a sense it would be unfair to suddenly move the goal posts on people nearing retirement or already retired, or perhaps a calculation that older people vote in greater numbers than young ones do, or both.
But a Pew Research Center poll conducted May 25-30 finds that the strongest opposition to Ryan’s proposal is strongest among those over 50. Fifty-one percent of those surveyed in that age group oppose his plan compared to 29 percent who support it. Pew’s numbers show that opposition to be “intense” with 42 percent strongly opposed compared to 19 percent strongly in favor.
By contrast, 38 percent of those who are 30 to 49 support change while 36 percent oppose it and 46 percent of those 18 to 29 support the plan while 28 percent oppose it.
A factor in the differences among age groups is probably that older Americans are paying more attention to the debate, for obvious reasons. Thirty percent of those over 65 and 27 percent of those between 5- and 64 say they have heard “a lot” about it, compared to 15 percent for those between 30 and 49 and 13 percent in the 18 to 29 group.
Overall 41 percent of Americans oppose the plan and 36 percent favor the medicare changes, with 30 percent in the “strongly” oppose column. The remainder is undecided. Opposition cuts across political lines: a plurality of Republicans, Democrats and independents oppose the proposal, although opposition is highest among Democrats.
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